Whoever we choose to win next year’s presidential election must have national spread.
In terms of national spread,the framers of our constitution understood our diversity and that we are a country of so many tribes, so in order to carry every tribe along, which is inclusion in a nutshell, they made it practically impossible for a regional champion or a tribal champion to emerge as our president.
What they did was simple: to become Nigeria’s president, you must have national spread by winning at least 25% of votes cast in 24 out of 36 states.
Without this, you can never be elected as Nigerian president.
This is why, despite the talakwas’ love for Buhari in the north, Buhari failed miserably three times in his attempts to be our president.
It was not until he went into an alliance with the South West in 2015 that he won.
The same structure delivered him in 2019.
I can tell you for free that if Buhari had run for the presidency under the CPC platform in 2015, the best he would have done is come in 3rd and Jonathan would have comfortably won his reelection.
I study data a lot, and this election reminds me of the 1979 presidential election, as it mirrors that election in so many ways when we had regional leaders running for president, just like we have them today.
In that election, we had the late Zik, Awolowo, Waziri Ibrahim, and Aminu Kano, all tribal champions on the ballot paper.
Zik was the tribal leader of South east and in some part, South south.
Awolowo was the tribal leader of South west.
Waziri Ibrahim was the tribal leader of North East
While Aminu Kano held away and loomed large in North West.
The late Shagari and Ekwueme who were least favored to win won that election because of national spread.
If Awolowo and Aminu Kano had come together to forge a coalition, they would have defeated Shagari and Ekwueme. Or if Awolowo had forged a coalition with Waziri, he would have won.
My job is not to tell you who to vote for.
At this stage, people have made up their mind on who to vote for.
Go ahead, campaign for your candidate.
My job is to study data without bias and emotion to know who among these frontline candidates will likely win next year.
National spread is more important to win the election than being a regional leader.
Facts are very stubborn and cannot be wished away.
