Tearing up the playbook of Nigerian politics?

The Soul of Nigeria (Poem)

Quietly and surprisingly, a movement is ongoing in Nigeria that is threatening the dominant political arrangement in the country. Existing theories and practices support dominant political parties with established structures all over the country winning the presidency. With this knowledge and with the provision for few delegates picking the candidates of the main parties, money bags have hijacked the dominant political parties and now buy off delegates to emerge as the parties’ candidates for elections. Unlike in other places where political leaders and party candidates reflect the wishes of their base and by extension the wider society, in Nigeria, the party base and the society at large have no say on how party leaders and candidates emerge.

The youth are very angry but politicians do not get it.

In 2015, Nigeria’s predominantly youthful population (the median age in Nigeria is 18.1 years) was sold a lie that Muhammadu Buhari is the long-awaited messiah. Seven years down after, the only things associated with Buhari’s administration are deepening poverty, widespread insecurity, record-breaking unemployment, especially among the youth, economic stagnation, extinguished hope, and above all, a government that is absolutely dissociated from the people and carries on as if the people are a conquered lot whose opinions and feelings do not matter.

What is worse, their simple demand that the government should stop the police from harassing, brutalising and killing young people for fun on the streets could not gain traction with the tone-deaf government. Rather than seeing the protests as a sign of frustration, the Buhari government saw it as an uprising and sent soldiers to kill unarmed protesters. To rub salt to their injuries, nothing has been done about police harassment, abuse, and killings of youth and the police have continued with business as usual.

Yet, dominant politicians and parties are positioning themselves to employ the same playbook as they did many years ago to win the upcoming election. They believe Nigerians are just a collection of ethnic and religious enclaves who would always respond to ethnic and religious dog whistles during elections regardless of their economic and social situations.

Nigeria’s middle class and elderly are a wasted generation

Dominant politicians and parties derived their theories of the political behaviour of Nigerians from the middle class and elderly in Nigeria, who since independence and since the return to democracy in 1999 have always put ethnic, religious, and personal/selfish considerations above all others in electoral decisions. The middle class, on the other hand, far from being the victim, is an enabler of the politicians. Unlike the archetypal middle class in Western countries that act to protect the democratic order by ensuring good governance and accountability of elected leaders, the Nigerian middle class, with few exceptions, use their privileged positions to negotiate good deals for themselves, their families and friends and have thus become the medium through which Nigeria’s politics of plunder, neopatrimonialism and prebandalism is sustained and deepened.

Like they did in 2014/2015, the upper and middle class are already preparing asinine arguments with which to justify the candidacies of aspirants in the dominant parties. But make no mistake; all the arguments are motivated by three broad considerations: ethnic or religious considerations, and personal interests. For them, Nigeria is a huge piece of cake that is constantly being shared. All their life’s goals, as it were, are to get a seat on the table or get themselves into the room where the cake is being shared so that they could pick up the crumbs, at least.

Is an upset possible?

Regardless of the established theories about Nigerian politics and the odds of third-party candidates winning, an angry and aggressive youth population, at least in the south of Nigeria, is beginning to emerge to put these assumptions to the test. They are angry about the dummy constantly being sold to them by politicians. They are angry that their future, just like their parents’ is being taken away from them right before their eyes. They are angry that their country is being turned into a wasteland where nothing works and where dreams die. They are angry that to have any chance of actualising their potential, they must leave the country for a better one where education, healthcare and social services work.

It hasn’t escaped them that in a country with the highest number of out-of-school kids in the world and with the youngest population in the world, it does not bother the government that public universities have been shut for over five months due to strike by teachers.

Worse, the two dominant candidates, who bought off the delegates of their parties to emerge as candidates do not seem to appreciate the urgency of the moment. While one’s motivation for the office of the presidency is because it is his turn and the turn of his ethnic group to produce the president, the other sees the presidency only as a life-long ambition.

These young people are now promoting a third-party candidate, who they see as the embodiment of their dreams and hopes for a new Nigeria. They see his frugality, his prudence and especially, his positive disposition to genuine accountability as a tool to begin taking back their country.

Initially, his candidacy was dismissed as a non-starter if he is not contesting on the ticket of one of the two established political parties. Then when they could no longer dismiss the momentum his candidacy is generating, they are now trying to force him into being a running mate instead or knock him out of the race altogether. The middle class, on the other hand, tries to dismiss the enthusiasm he is generating as only a social media phenomenon that has no bearing on the vast army of the uneducated and unenlightened mainly on the fringes of society.

The coming months promise to be interesting. Can the youth keep the momentum going? Can they influence their families, friends, and especially, the unenlightened section of the electorate who have always responded positively to the dog whistle of politicians and their middle-class collaborators? Can they convince them that a new Nigeria of their dreams is possible? My money’s on them to beat the odds and give the politicians a shocker!

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