After the nationwide Presidential and National Assembly elections, attention is now shifted to the statewide Guber and state houses of assembly elections which promises to be another possible switch from the conventional nay traditional pattern of elections in Nigeria. There is the likelihood of surprises in some states particularly in the South – East and the South – South including some parts of the middle belt owing to the Obi tsunami sweeping across mainly the southern and North central parts of the country.
The two main political parties, the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) may not have a smooth sail in some of the states under their control owing largely to the tsunami of the Labour Party in the SE and SS and parts of the North central. From all indications, there is largely going to be a change of guard party-wise in many states including the North West and North -East although the power of incumbency will still play out in some states.
IMPROVEMENTS RECORDED
The 2023 Presidential and National Assembly elections have recorded some improvements in terms of the efficiency of the voting procedure. There is a reduced somewhat less affinity for commercialisation of politics and monetisation of votes in the 2023 Presidential and National Assembly election.
Votes do count to some extent now and multiple voting is now minimised hence Okada riders and other candidates not given a chance hitherto were able to win National Assembly seats.
Clearly, technology has improved the conduct of the 2023 general elections. This includes the use of BVAS, electronic transfer of results and INEC results viewing portal (iRev). Specifically, the use of the digital bimodal voter accreditation system (BVAS) ensured that only accredited voters are allowed to vote. This obviously lowered the number of those who voted and differs significantly with the previous elections where the manual system in which almost everyone of voting age who made it to the polling unit is allowed to vote, held sway.
The Labour Party was able to win several states controlled by the APC and PDP which is an indication that votes do count to some extent.
VOTER APATHY
The 2023 Presidential election witnessed a low voter participation compared to all previous elections since Nigeria’s latest adventure as a democracy in 1999. Low voter turnout is largely linked to failed promises by politicians and the consequential frustration by voters with political leaders.
The Naira redesign policy may have minimally reduced vote buying but the untold needless hardship it caused discouraged many registered voters from making the effort to go to the polling unit to cast their votes.
VOTER PARTICIPATION ON A DOWNWARD SPIRAL IN 2023.
Below is the total number of registered voters and the number of votes recorded in the Presidential election in 2023 and 2019.
2023: Total number of registered voters: 93,469,008
Total number of votes: 25,286,616 (28.63%).
2019: Total number of registered voters: 84,004,084
Total number of votes: 28,614,190
(34.75%)
The percentage of voter turn out in previous election is as follows:
2011- 54%
2007-57%
2003-69% (Highest since 1999).
1999-52%
The trend of voter apathy continues to mar elections in Nigeria. In the 2023 Presidential election, 87.2 million registered voters collected their permanent voters cards (PVC)!but only 25.3 million people voted in the Presidential election to decide the fate of over 220 million Nigerians.
In the Guber election, voter apathy will likely continue. As a matter of fact, from previous elections, many voters seem to be more interested in the Presidential election compared to the Guber elections.
This Saturday, Gubernatorial elections is expected to hold in 28 out of the 36 states.
The states where Guber elections will hold this Saturday are as follows:
Abia, Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Bauchi, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Enugu, Gombe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Oyo, Plateau, Rivers, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe, Zamfara.
17 state governors have completed their second terms and will not be seeking re-election.
These states are: Sokoto, Kebbi, Kaduna, Katsina, Jigawa, Kano, Benue, Niger, Plateau, Taraba, Cross Rivers, Rivers, Enugu, Ebonyi, Abia, Ekiti, Delta.
The 11 states where Governors are seeking re-election: Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Yobe, Zamfara, Kwara, Nassarawa, Lagos, Ogun, Oyo.
The 8 ‘off-season’ states where Guber elections will not this Saturday are:
Anambra, Bayelsa, Edo, Ekiti, Imo, Kogi, Osun, and Ondo
HOW THE POLITICAL PARTIES WILL FARE IN THE STATES.
Below is a state-by-state analysis of the likely outcome of the Guber elections this Saturday.
ABIA- The Labour Party is almost certainly winning this state by a wide margin. This will be part of the Obi tsunami sweeping across the SE and SS geopolitical zone and part of the North central. The ruling PDP in the state will come a distant second.
ADAMAWA-The APC is fielding the first female Guber candidate in the state Sen Binani. Although she had made history, Sen Aishatu Binani will not be able to overcome the ‘men’ in the PDP. The PDP will win Adamawa but Sen Binani will almost certainly be involved in the incoming Tinubu administration as a minister and member of the federal executive council or something close to that. The PDP will retain this state by a reasonable margin.
AKWA IBOM- Despite the Obi tsunami sweeping across the SE and SS, the PDP will retain this state but Labour will come a close second.
BAUCHI- The PDP will win this state albeit it faces a stiff opposition from the APC. If the APC can strike a realistic deal with the NNPP, it may make a better showing but the PDP will win it regardless.
BENUE- The Obedient Labour Party is on the rise in this state but the APC will win it. The APC has the advantage of fielding a very popular and charismatic candidate Rev Fr Hyacinth Alia. The influence of the kingmaker Sen George Akume will come into play here. However, if the PDP can negotiate a workable alliance with Labour, it may cause more problems for the APC.
BORNO: This is a classical APC territory. With the popularly of Governor Zulum and VP – elect Kashim Shettima, it will be a straight victory for the APC.
CROSS RIVERS- This state is controlled by the APC after the governor Ben Ayade made a bold political suicide of decamping to the APC knowing full well that the state is traditionally PDP. The governor may have thought that he can use his influence as governor to build the APC in the state but this doesn’t appear to be the case. The APC and PDP will divide their votes thus allowing the Labour Party to sneak in and win the state. The state will fall to the Obidients.
DELTA: The Labour Party will win this state and the PDP will come a close second. Obi tsunami is fully grounded in this state and even the go-getter APC candidate DSP Omo-Agege cannot stop the Obidients
EBONYI: The ruling APC will likely lose this state to Labour Party by a wide margin. The Obi tsunami will sweep through Ebonyi with ease.
ENUGU- The Labour Party will easily win this state with PDP coming a distant second. The dark horse Guber candidate of the Labour Party in Enugu state is already banking on his luck
GOMBE: The PDP won the Presidential election convincingly in this state owing to a mix of anti-party activities by some APC leaders and the growing unpopularity of the current governor Inuwa. The PDP will likely have a smooth sale and win the state but it will be a tight race.
JIGAWA: A supposed APC territory although the PDP has a very good ground as well. The only stumbling block to APC’s victory is if the PDP can work out an alliance with the NNPP. This seems too late to happen though.
KADUNA- This state is a test-case of Nigeria and a clear example of what happened during the Presidential election where the Labour Party ate into PDP’s votes to deny the PDP victory and allow the APC to sneak in and smile home. If the Labour Party contests the election, the APC will likely win the state because Labour will eat up PDP’s votes in Southern Kaduna. On the other hand, if the Labour Party candidate withdraws or goes into an alliance with the PDP, the APC will be out of Sir Kashim Ibrahim house in a jiffy. The PDP has a good chance to win the state.
KANO: The NNPP is on a smooth sail in Kano and will almost certainly clinch victory this Saturday while the APC will come a distant second. Even an alliance between the APC and PDP cannot stop Kwankwaso’s NNPP from wining the state. Abba Kabir Yusuf, the Guber candidate of the NNPP is not far from it when he said Governor Ganduje should start preparing his handover notes.
KATSINA: The current level of insecurity will make the APC lose the state to the PDP. The people of Katsina state feel that the state Government under Aminu Masari is not doing enough to fight insecurity in the state. Bandits are calling the shots and holding innocent villagers to ransom in many villages of katsina state. Recall that Governor Aminu Masari had almost given up on insecurity and surrendered to the bandits when he flatly told the people of Kstsuna state to ‘protect yourselves against the bandits. If you cannot afford a gun, use catapult.
The PDP will win this state in s very tight race. An alliance between the APC and NNPP could be the game changer for the APC.
KEBBI- There is almost an indescribable resentment against the APC government led by Atiku Bagudu hence it is almost a fait accompli that the PDP will win this state. The people felt Governor Bagudu didn’t deliver the dividend of democracy to them throughout his tenure, not even close.
The PDP won the Presidential election in the state with a reasonable margin of almost 40,000 votes.
KWARA- This is another APC territory. The party had cemented its impending victory this Saturday by consuming some of the smaller parties in the state such as Labour and NNPP under an alliance of inconvenience.
LAGOS: The die is cast here and you can literally feel the tension in Lagos from Abuja. Clearly it is advantage APC over Labour because most of the Obidients may not bother in the Guber election than they did in the Presidential. The towering stature of Peter Obi seems to be the factor rather than the ideology of the Labour Party. 9 out of 10, Obidients voted for Peter Obi not really the Labour Party. This could be linked to the man’s seeming innocent look, charisma on one hand and ethnicity and religion on the other. So the Obidients in Lagos may not have the taste to come out emmasse to vote, climb the skies and ‘push it’ for the Labour Party candidate Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour against incumbent Governor Sanwo-Olu as they did on February 25th for Peter Obi against Asiwaju Tinubu.
The APC also has the power of incumbency to go with. On the other hand, if the Labour Party can strike an alliance with the PDP (which is highly unlikely), it could change the game. Additionally, the President – elect Asiwaju Tinubu will want to deliver his state as it will help his focus to deliver good governance at the national level devoid of distractions from his home state.
NASSARAWA: This is a straight battle between the APC and Labour. The PDP could be the king maker. Any of the top two that can get the PDP into an alliance will win the election. APC could win it with the help of incumbency factor.
NIGER- The APC will win this state with a slim margin over the PDP. Labour could change the game in PDP’s favour if it goes into an alliance with the PDP.
OGUN- A traditional APC territory. The APC will win it by a reasonable margin over the PDP.
OYO- The APC won the Presidential election in this state because Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu is on the ballot. It will be different in the Guber election where the PDP is likely going to retain the state.
PLATEAU- The only factor stopping the Labour Party from winning this election is an alliance between the APC and the PDP which is highly unlikely. The time is up for the APC in this state as the Obi tsunami is likely going to come to play here.
RIVERS- The APC won the Presidential election in this state but the story will change in the Guber election as Governor Wike will deploy his arsenal to ensure victory for his party, the PDP. The Labour Party has an outside chance in this state.
SOKOTO- This is going to be interesting because the growing resentment of the people of Sokoto state against the Aminu Tambuwal administration will come to play. The people of Sokoto state feel that the Tambuwal administration has not delivered the dividends of democracy to them throughout the 8 years it held sway. Also, the huge grassroots support enjoyed by Sen Aliyu Magatakarda Wamakko, the APC leader in the state may win it for the APC. Clearly the Tambuwal administration has not connected with the people in the state hence the PDP in the state will struggle this Saturday. The APC will win Sokoto state this Saturday but it will be close as the PDP looks desperate and will maximally use its power of incumbency.
TARABA- You can always expect a PDP victory in Taraba state no matter the odds. The Labour Party will come second.
YOBE- The PDP won the Presidential election in this state but that may change in the Guber election. It is fair to say though, that without the incumbency factor, the state could slip into the hands of the PDP. Indeed an upgrade of political consciousness is apparent in Yobe state. The APC will win it.
ZAMFARA- There is some sort of desperation by the APC to retain power in this state despite the growing unpopularity of the Bello Matawalle administration. The APC administration resorted to scare-mongering to win the Presidential election in the state but that will change this Saturday as the people feel that the state Governor is not doing enough to deal with the very high insecurity in the state just as some feel that he (Governor Matawalle) has a soft spot for the bandits who are on a mission to destroy Zamfara state and are continuously killing many innocent indigenes of the state. The lackadaisical attitude of the Matawalle administration towards tackling banditry in the state has led to the state being dubbed ‘capital of banditry in Nigeria. The people of Zamfara state are obviously not happy and would want to send a very strong and clear message this Saturday.
It will be very close but the PDP will win the state.
Conclusion:
Based on these projections, the APC will win 10 states
PDP 11 states
Labour 6 states
NNPP 1 state.
