On predicting one thousand naira will exchange for a dollar in my first venture as a columnist in August 2021, and the prediction coming to pass within the given time frame of two to three years, I am flummoxed that the dollar is approaching two thousand naira this time within a year! When the window between the CBN rate and parallel market was collapsed in 1999, the CBN rate was twenty-two to the dollar and the parallel market was eighty. The naira did not lapse into free fall as we experience today. What could be different? Things are not much…
Author: Olugbenga Jaiyesimi
“Wisdom in people consists in the anticipation of consequences.” Norman Cousins, 1915-1990. Courtesy Elder Dele Sobowale. Though fifty two companies are under investigation by Economic and Financial Crime Commission seems the invasion of Dangote Group offices was stage managed for media coverage as EFCC retrieved’ documents. This at a period the new Dangote Flagship, the Carrier Petrochemical and Refinery complex is sailing out to sea to conquer the world. What game is going on? Is it for the good of the land or playing to a gallery to assuage the Emefiele assaulted minds of Nigerians. Is EFCC playing its traditional…
Two years ago, in an article titled STOP BORROWING DOLLARS BORROW SENSE predicted the dollar exchanging for one thousand naira whether Nigerians liked it or not. To be conservative I wrote this should be within three years, it has come to pass in two years. This was inevitable owing to futility of buharinomics and emefielism. Seeing Emefiele accusing the forex rating agency Abokifx of being the reason for Naira’s continued depreciation, I knew they had no clue in the then CBN. Abokifx refused getting in the ring with Emefiele and quit publishing daily rates. The rest is history, back then…
…lagging horses should emulate leading horses(Yoruba idiom) First reading encounter with Latin American economies was in 1970s with the news of heavy stagflation in Brazil and Argentina. These economies were saddled with huge foreign debt, hyperinflation and high unemployment hence the term stagflation. Brazil got out of stagflation in the mid 90s but Argentina is back in it now joined by Venezuela. First impression of Asian countries was the arrival of Japanese goods into Nigeria. On our roads appeared the Toyota models, as well as Nissan, Mitsubishi, Honda etc. Later electronic giants Sony, Panasonic, National and Sharp ventured into Nigerian…
…..who is Seretse Khama? Assessing African economies by their per capita GDP income we find some governments in Africa doing well for their peoples. Using Ghana’s per capita GDP, pc.GDP, of approximately two thousand USD as benchmark we can carry out a country by country comparison. Good to start with Paul kagame’s Rwanda with a pc. GDP of $822. He is perceived as a performer and he has multiplied his countrymen’s pc.GDP four folds on assumption in April of 2000. However there is an African country with eight times Rwanda’s pc.GDP(2021 figures) whose leaders remain uncelebrated in Africa. Economic…
Congratulations on attaining your life ambition of becoming the president of a United Nigeria. Always viewed with caution those who had the office thrust upon them. A lack of preparation for the office affects their performance. Good to know you desired this office hence you should be better positioned for the office. Your predecessor also coveted the office but did not use the years prior to taking office to prepare and deliver the maximum good for the maximum number. The good he delivered was for a minority as he was busy herding cows in his doldrums years. That you are…
Attaining economic growth of ten percent and above in a nation that celebrated two to three percent annual economic growth for seven half years seem like aspiring to build castles in the sky. Double Digit Growth DDG in a nation whose policy makers do not know what works for the economy is near impossible as decision makers move from one end of economic philosophy spectrum to the other. In a country that is led by those with groundnut pyramid mindset that birthed phoney rice pyramids. Growing at over 10% per annum for upwards of twenty years, barring unforeseen global shocks,…
Towards the end of the last century upbeat change was all around us as technology broke down borders and globalisation moved full speed ahead. Military regimes were receding from the African continent. In Nigeria, 1999 saw the withdrawal of the military into their barracks and the installation of a civilian administration headed by a retired general of the army. In the early 2000s telecoms revolution debuted in Nigeria and with it information technology, Nigeria has not been the same again. Africa indeed stirred as the OAU became AU and the presidents set up organs like NEPAD for implementating further change…
“……been blind four hundred years, been deaf four hundred years, four hundred years in coma….” Jimmy Cliff Jamaican Singer. Allegedly new ore was discovered in the Democratic Republic of Congo. On applying friction to the ore it produced sparks and on using a piece of the ore to close an electric circuit it lit a bulb. The supposedly new ore seem to readily yield its electrons thus its potential in either photovoltaic panels or batteries seem obvious. This created lots of excitement on social media platforms with usual comments that reveal the minds of Africans. Another media clip claiming the…
A country’s currency should circulate seamlessly and as the world goes cashless, we have Norway and Sweden at near 100% cashlessness. Meanwhile, Somalia had no functional Central Bank a few years back and different currencies were in circulation in Somali’s markets. Nigeria is somewhere in between, with it’s internal regional disparities, meaning a total withdrawal of cash is unwise and cash should remain king for some time. But our monetary authorities think otherwise. Notwithstanding, it was expected that all will be done within the powers of monetary authorities to make the introduction of new notes as seamless as possible, after…
“Africa needs Strong Institutions not Strong Men”, Barrack Obama. The thrust of the book ‘Why Nations Fail’ by Daron Acemoglu et al is this, “The success of Developed countries is based on their strong institution”. African Nations are thus advised to build strong institutions though African countries were left with Western like institutions at independence. Were they not brought down to the customs of peoples of Africa. Is it possible to build institutions with values other than those held by the people who will run the institutions? Nigeria has created a plethora of new institutions such as EFCC, ICPC, NEITI…
For the first time in our politico-economic discourse aspiring for double digit economic growth DDG is taking centre stage, this is belated. Pundits are talking about it and it was centre stage at the just concluded Nigerian Economic Summit Group conference in Abuja. It appeared in party manifestos and presidential candidates give it a mention. Donald Duke was first politician from whose lips I heard DDG get first mention, unfortunately he has withdrawn from aspiring to lead the nation. That politicians make pronouncements doesn’t equate to their being knowledgeable on achieving what they spout, recent history confirms this. To them…
Once again unsavoury economic news was received in Nigeria. Last time it was that 133 million Nigerians lived in MultiDimensional Poverty, recent news is that it would require a mind boggling 300 years for Nigeria to bridge the gap and have the necessary infrastructure to function as a modern economy. This is coming from the country economist of the World Bank WB attached to Nigeria, but to the discerning mind it is no less obvious. This avalanche of bad economic news has not always been the case. Nigeria used to be part of the emerging and rising Africa, the new…
Nigeria being poverty capital of the world has become a cliche. The country is on the path of fulfilling The Economist magazine’s prediction that in the not too distant future 80% of the world’s poorest will reside in Nigeria and Democratic Republic of Congo. All hands must be on deck to negate this prophecy. Last month, the nation was stunned with a Report from National Bureau of Statistics NBS confirming that 133 million Nigerians live in MultiDimensional Poverty MDP. This is more alarming than the 90 million or thereabout earlier said to be living in extreme poverty in Nigeria. What…
These are interesting times for natural gas endowed African nations. These nations have to plead with developed nations not to abandon natural gas because of global warming. I heard it was the West that underdeveloped Africa? I thought we should be weary of our colonial masters yet we remain tied to the apron strings of the West and can’t develop without the West. Nations losing sovereignty to other nations has been the historical norm rather than nations being fully autonomous. Self determination was not a given, it was easily lost to a conquering nation without moralising about the conquest. Though…
Campaigns for the forthcoming general elections have begun and so too the publication of party manifestos to anchor various social contracts on offer to the country by the parties. Chief Obafemi Awolowo made party manifestos a milestone in Nigerian politicking, I stand to be corrected on this. His manifestos forced the hands of other parties in the first and second republics into making manifestos of sorts. No one remembers party manifestos being published at the beginning of third Republic in 1998. Some believe manifestos are of no consequence no matter how well thought out and crafted, after all manifestos never…
This piece could also be titled ‘Getting off This Road to Zimbabwe’ but Venezuela is an oil dependant economy unlike Zimbabwe. Moreover the path Zimbabwe took to hyperinflation was not from mismanagement of its natural resources but from angst of the West because lands purportedly belonging to whites were seized. How a stupendous oil rich Venezuela became plagued with a dysfunctional economy is mind boggling because hyperinflation is a scourge of war affected countries like Weimar Germany or highly indebted countries like Brazil and Argentina of the 1970s. Venezuela is not war torn nor highly indebted in foreign currency. So…
Whatever the outcome of the 2023 Nigerian presidential election, change is coming upon Nigeria as the man currently at the helm has to leave. This time no one is using the odorous change mantra as the last Change has been for the worse and the next level that followed has been for a much lower level. The nation is at an inflection point, at a forked road and there is trepidation as to the choice we make. Would there be a power shift’ from a political party to another? Would there be a generational imposed shift or an anti establishment…
No gainsaying that the Structural Adjustment Program SAP draw negative emotions amongst Nigerians. As written a fortnight ago this is a misplaced sentiment. Chief Audu Ogbeh having brought it up in a video that has gone viral this year, I believe we would be doing ourselves a great disservice if not properly addressed. This is pertinent considering other countries China and India undertook structural changes to their economies around the same time as Nigeria did and have had great outcomes from the exercise. China seized the opportunity to restructure its economy with the passing of Chairman Mao Zedong in 1976…
For Millennials so they understand SAP wasn’t gloom Audu Ogbeh a former minister of agriculture is captured on video saying Nigeria’s economic woes started in 1986. He said “The tragedy of Nigeria began in 1986 when we did the structural adjustment programme. When we were persuaded to devalue our currency every week for thirty two years……until the naira hit #527”. Well Naira has hit #700 with their peculiar counter measures and I wonder what he has to say. Nigeria’s economic woes did not start in 1986 as stated by Audu. It started in 1982 with the collapse of…
The article “How we became Poverty Champions of the World” remain incomplete if not followed with an article that suggests means and ways of dropping the poverty trophy. We are about reclaiming the title from India considering the daily negative economic news from Nigeria. There is need to come up with ways of getting out of this preposterous race to the bottom and join the prosperous league of nations. It has been a painful follow-up because it’s a rehash of several submissions that has taken up space in the media in recent times and I do not wish to sound…
Nigeria was destined to be World Football Champions by the year 2020, what we achieved was world poverty champions. This we have momentarily lost to India in 2021 after a three-year reign though we are working assiduously to regain the crown. Also Nigeria was expected by others, others project these worthy aims for us, to be one of twenty largest economies in the world what we achieved was 31st from 26th position. Professor Sheriffdeen Tella captured the quagmire we are in in his 18th July article published by Punch Newspapers, titled “Nigeria Refuses to Win Against’ Poverty and Hunger!” In…
A more than cursory investigation of the Nigerian economy reveals diverging fortunes for the finance sector led by banks and real sector led by manufacturing. With decline in manufacturing, now at 9% of GDP from height of 20% in early 1980s, pundits would expect banks fortunes to decline with the belief that the real sector, manufacturing et al, sustains banks at least for developing economies. Such logic has been turned on its head. In regions of the country while manufacturing has disappeared, bank branches have increased. Meanwhile the Nigerian Central Bank CBN has assumed the role of retail banks by…
Affairs of countries are grouped into the social, economic and political spheres. In polity discussions the social sphere takes a back seat to economic and political issues. The social milieu are also handled by non partisan figures like traditional rulers, the clergy, teachers, and parents while the politico-economic seem to be the preserve of political actors and analysts. While social upheavals are far and in between, we are confronted with politico-economic upheavals frequently. Discussants say we cannot divorce our economics from our politics. Some of us differ on this. Others believe if we do not get our political framework right…
In declaring his presidential interest, Senior Pastor at Citadel Global Community Church Tunde Bakare anchored his declaration on tripling Nigerian Gross Domestic Product, GDP, to 1.5 trillion dollars by 2030. He remains the only politician to mention the holy grail of a Trillion Dollar Economy as a political target. Other presidential aspirants love to make do with platitudes and other generics employed to tickle the ears of the electorate including their intention to divert less monies into theirs and cronies pockets. However, Pastor Tunde Bakare did not elaborate on the means to triple Nigerian GDP in eight years. I am…
Late sage Chief Obafemi Awolowo must be rolling and roiling in his mausoleum. He was so passionate about having an educated society because uplifting peoples and opening their minds make a society less malleable by demagogues. The educated electorate should be able to make sound judgement calls on issues during elections. On the contrary it appears those whose worldview of western education as secondary to another worldview are more politically astute and savvy than beneficiaries of Awolowo’s investment in western education. How has Nigerian elections fared since the late philosopher left the scene in 1987. Historical perspectives throw more light…
“CHOOSE YOUR LEADERS WITH WISDOM AND FORETHOUGHT. TO BE LED BY A COWARD IS TO BE CONTROLLED BY ALL THINGS THE COWARD FEARS. TO BE LED BY A FOOL IS TOBE LED BY OPPORTUNISTS WHO CONTOL THE FOOL……” Octavia E. Butler. Another campaign cycle is upon us. The euphoria of 2015 has all but dissipated, Nigerians left highly disappointed. Despite tell tale signs of non performance in the first four years, Nigerians were patient and did not do the needful in 2019. To correct this anomaly, Nigerians are being urged to collect Permanent Voters Cards, PVC, with a view of…
Can Nigeria attain a multi trillion dollar economy? Yes we can, after all we were on path to a trillion dollar gdp in the first fifteen years of this 21st century with gdp quadrupling to 0.6 trillion dollars. Then oil prices crashed and a statist regime happened on us thus dousing the engines of growth. Seven years on the economy is barely at the 2015 level the year the dirigists took power. To understand what happened to us in last seven years some historical perspective is necessary. Before the onset of self-government and independence of the 1950s and ‘6os, the…
Olugbenga JAIYESIMI 08123709109 jerry3jaiye@gmail.com At the defeat of the Germans in 1945 and uncovering of the holocaust, in-depth soul searching was done on German soul by philosophers and sociologists. With this was fashioned a new constitution for Germany. The same was done for the Japanese leading to what they termed a pacifist constitution. Can nations be psychoanalyzed or profiled? Is there a role for psychoanalysis at a macro developmental level? In October 2002 a clinical psychologist turned economist was awarded the Nobel prize in economics for his work in behavioral microeconomics. I believe this should be carried into developmental economics…
When discussing restructuring of the Nigerian polity and making the case for fiscal federalism, it is postulated that all states or regions have resources governors can fall back on rather than go cap in hand to Abuja. Resource control has also been at the focus of agitation by a region of the country. This resource debate go beyond Nigeria as discussants question Africa remaining poor despite having over 30% of the world’s mineral and natural resources. They claim Africa is being raped or drained of her resources. However, a resource remains inanimate’ until an inventor finds a use for it. …
