Nigeria’s ruling party, APC, is just like any other party in the country. What makes it different for now is the fact that it is the ruling party at the federal level and with the higher number of states under its belt. Another aspect of its difference is its formation process; four party structures – CPC, ACN, ANPP and a part of APGA/PDP – had to be merged to birth APC, so till today this continues to influence the dynamics in the party. It is more centrifugal than centripetal.
After series of gimmicks, APC is almost certain to have its convention on the 26th of March, 2022. The drama which has surrounded the ruling party from the states to the federal level up to this moment will make for a blockbuster movie when it goes to the cinema, even without the touch of genius from a film director.
For example, the abracadabra change of leadership in the party in the space of a week was nothing short of the conspiracies which Nigerian politics is known for; the more you look the less you understand.
Monday morning, 7th March 2022, the news broke out that the Governor of Yobe State, Mai Mala Buni had been removed as Chairman APC Caretaker Committee and in his place Governor of Niger State, Sani Bello was to take over as the new substantive chairman of the party. This was allegedly an order from President Buhari who was not in the country at the time just like Buni himself who was in Dubai for medical reasons during the same period.
There was no statement to confirm or deny these happenings, either from Buhari or Buni’s camp. To cut the long story short, today Buni is still at the helm of APC’s leadership.
Around the same time, the governor of Ebonyi state, Dave Umahi was ousted by a court order due to his defection from the PDP under which he ran for governor to APC. Two days ago, 20 lawmakers in the Cross River state house of assembly under the APC were asked to vacate their seats following the ruling by a court.
It is clear from the foregoing that APC’s house is on fire and there are fears that it might implode anytime soon, permit to add explode also. Whatever happens at the convention it is certain that the time bomb will begin to tick faster.
Let’s take a look at the possibilities which could become the fate of APC in the coming months leading up to the Election Day:
- Because the centrifugal forces in the party are quite strong and multiplying by the day, we can accurately predict that the decision of who leads the party as chairman and other high offices in the party, and who gets the presidential ticket will definitely please some sections and displease the others.
- The displeased members will desperately try to get even and therefore the chaos in the party will be covertly and overtly heightened. It will take dictatorial measures by the leadership of the party to bring a level of sanity into the party to absorb the chaos, Buhari’s revered presence will also come to bear but for how long.
- For personal and group-sabotage reasons, there will be defections in and out of the party, though the current dwindling fortunes of already defected politicians will make others take extra care before they embark on any defection.
- APC might win the presidential election come 2023 and then the house will become more chaotic as the kitchen cabinet will be overwhelmed by the demands of members to get a chunk of the party, sorry, national cake.
- APC might lose the election and it will be to your tents O Israel, the implosion of the party, the mortification of APC.