The candidacy of Peter Obi, presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP) may be of benefit to the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Oxford Analytica Daily Brief of United Kingdom has said.
In an article, published on October 12, titled, “Peter Obi will shake up the Nigerian presidential race”, Oxford Analytica said the polls three polls recently conducted showing Obi in the clear lead may overstate Obi’s chances at the February 2023 presidential election.
The article argued that Obi’s lack of party infrastructure will hurt his ability to mobilise supporters. Yet his glowing chances cannot be ruled out.
“The polls may overstate Obi’s chances. His lack of party infrastructure will hurt his ability to mobilise supporters,” the article reads.
“Yet Obi’s popularity will likely weigh heavily on the presidential race. His candidacy may benefit the nominee of the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC), Bola Tinubu, by threatening to make inroads into the electoral base of the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and its nominee, Atiku Abubakar.”
It noted that Obi is well-positioned for a future run if he makes a strong showing at next year’s polls.
The article backed up its argument, saying Nigeria has largely developed a two-party system.
“Nigeria, with its strong presidency, has developed a largely two-party system. The 2015 and 2019 elections saw negligible portions of the vote going to third-party candidates.
“The political map has been more diverse at the state level than at the presidential level, with some minor parties holding governorships.”
The article also argued about the LP platform on which Obi is running.
“The LP was founded in 2002 as the Party for Social Democracy. It has not enjoyed electoral success. The LP’s first presidential candidate, Muhammad Usman Zaki, received less than 1% of the vote in 2019. Obi’s defection from the PDP to LP in May 2022, and the excitement that his candidacy has generated, are the most significant developments for the party in many years.
“The LP formally remains committed to its founding principles of social democracy. It draws on a long tradition of social democratic thought in Nigeria, particularly in the southwest. Labour activism has also been a political and economic force in Nigeria. Unions can be major allies or major irritants for presidents — as many have learned while dealing with the thorny issue of whether to maintain fuel subsidies, for example.”
According to Oxford Analytica, Obi’s bid for presidency gained momentum simply because he is not Tinubu or Atiku and not part of APC or PDP.
It added that the duo of Atiku and Tinubu and their parties are, “widely associated with Nigeria’s many current interlocking crises — insecurity, corruption, joblessness, poor infrastructure and more. Obi is also less tainted by corruption accusations than his two major party rivals.”
The article cited one major potential weakness for Obi’s prospects as his lack of campaign and party organisation.
“His ground campaign stalls when he leaves the country. Although he is popular, elections are also influenced by patronage, intimidation, and identity-based voting.
“These factors are largely shaped by intra-elite pacts of the type that brought the APC to power: politicians throughout the political hierarchy all play a part in mobilising voters in blocs. Obi’s apparent popularity will not necessarily translate into voter turnout.”
Another weakness the article cited for Obi’s prospects is the choice of running mate, Yusuf Baba-Ahmad.
“Even if Obi swept the south, which is nearly impossible, he would struggle in the north. He failed to attract a major northern politician to become his vice-presidential nominee. His running mate, Yusuf Baba-Ahmad, a former senator from Kaduna, has no real national or even regional profile.”
The article expressed the fear that if elected, the LP candidate is unlikely to reverse the economic and security trends facing the country.
It also fears that Obi is also likely to struggle in building alliances in the national assembly, given that the parliament would be dominated by APC and PDP leaders
“If elected, it seems unlikely that Obi is well-positioned to reverse the downward economic and security trends currently facing the country. His stated commitment to maintaining a strong naira would exacerbate ongoing foreign-exchange shortages.
“Balancing the budget would require expenditure cuts that could face strong domestic opposition and could suppress economic growth. Ending the fuel subsidy, as he has promised, could generate powerful protests (particularly among his ostensible labour constituencies), which he may find it difficult to resist.
“He would also likely struggle to build durable alliances in a parliament dominated by APC and PDP leaders who could obstruct his agenda.”
