A dark cloud is currently hanging over the 2023 presidential ambition of Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and the second-term bid of Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu of Lagos State.
Furthermore, the unwavering prediction of the Leader Of INRI Evangelical Spiritual Church, Primate Elijah Ayodele, has given credence to the intelligence report of Menas Associates, a political risk consultancy on the two All Progressive Congress (APC) leaders.
According to Ayodele, the Lagos state wing of APC will be immersed in crisis that will ignite the defection of some of its key players.
Going by the damning intelligence report, the leaked EndSARS report will have major political implications for Tinubu’s ambition to succeed President Muhammadu Buhari in 2023, and Governor Sanwo-Olu’s re-election for a second four-year term.
Already, pro-democracy and human rights activist, Ebun-Olu Adegboruwa, SAN, has said that the panel will respond to the ‘’inaccuracies, cover-ups and the inconsistencies’’ allegedly contained in the White Papers released by the Lagos State Government on the Lekki Tollgate shooting.
The EndSARS Judicial Panel of Investigation had claimed in its report that nine people were killed at the Lekki Tollgate by the army and police. But the White Papers released by the Lagos State Government on Tuesday rubbished claims by the panel that nine people were killed.
Adegboruwa in a statement said since last November 15, when the reports of the EndSARS Judicial Panel was submitted to the Lagos state government, a good number of his colleagues, friends and admirers prevailed on him to refrain from further public pronouncements on the activities and reports of the Panel since the government was studying the said reports.
“Upon the submission of the said reports, lawyers on the payroll of the government and other employees of the government took turns to denigrate the reports, on national television, in paid adverts in newspapers and on the social media.
“Ministers in the Cabinet of the Federal Government have also commented on the said reports, in some cases calling members of the Panel unprintable names and even comparing victims of brutality and human rights abuses to goats and taunting their already traumatized families and friends.
“On November 30, 2021, the government released two separate White Papers, to the general public. The Panel was not informed of this action and it was not availed copies of the said White Papers, till this moment.
“The Committee that reviewed the Reports of the Panel and which produced the White Papers was headed by the Honourable Attorney-General of Lagos State”, he said.
Continuing, Adegboruwa said on December 1, the Attorney-General of Lagos State was a guest on Arise Television, where he took time to discuss the report of the panel and the contents of the White Papers that his committee produced.
He stated that the impression was also created that the panel mismanaged funds released to it.
“It has become necessary therefore for me and all other Members of the Panel to study the White Papers and make appropriate responses thereto. There will be no holds barred, since the government itself has opened the doors for public scrutiny of the report and the white papers.
“For the records, the Panel relied upon the evidence of witnesses, documents tendered before it and the goodwill of the people of Nigeria, throughout its assignment.
“It is painful for me and the Panel that the government is creating the wrong impression of financial impropriety as a tool of distraction when the Panel had a Secretariat that managed all its funds, through the Ministry of Justice”, he said.
Adegboruwa said although he served on the panel free of charge without collecting a dime, he knew as a fact that other members served sacrificially, given up their time, families and careers for a whole year.
“At the appropriate time, we will respond to all the inaccuracies, the coverups and the inconsistencies contained in the White Papers released by the government. Assuredly, nothing can ever cover the truth”, he said.
In its Nigeria Focus, a monthly intelligence report on Nigeria, the political risk consultancy says some All Progressives Congress (APC) insiders are already insinuating that Tinubu instigated the Lagos panel report in a bid to blackmail the ruling party into giving him the presidential ticket.
Interestingly, the report adds that there is no evidence that Tinubu had anything to do with the outcome of the report.
On November 15 the Lagos State Judicial Panel of Inquiry — into police brutality and the Lekki tollgate killings during the EndSARS (Special Anti-Robbery Squad) protests in October 2020 — finally submitted its report to the state government.
According to the political risk consultancy, ‘’ts contents, which were simultaneously leaked, will impact the race for the 2023 Presidency and will probably end any hope that Governor Sanwo-Olu has of being re-elected for a second four-year term.
‘’The panel’s report was not supposed to be made public until the government’s position paper on its recommendations was published. On the day that the panel submitted its report, however, a copy was leaked to the media and its findings and recommendations are already causing a lot of political heat.
‘’The panel — at which senior army officials initially refused to appear has now found that soldiers shot unarmed protesters ‘without provocation or justification.’ It indicated that deadly violence was compounded by the army’s obstruction of ambulances on their way to render medical assistance, and by police complicity in denying the true nature of events.
‘’The panel’s characterisation of the incident as a massacre up the ante, as do its recommendations for disciplinary action and reform, and its disclosure that over ₦400 million ($972,000) in damages has already been awarded to numerous victims.
‘’More damages are likely as the judicial process continues, whether Sanwo-Olu follows through on his promise that victims of the violence will be fully compensated by the state.
‘’He also promises a white paper on the incident within two weeks, but this may do little to reassure domestic and international critics such as human rights lawyers, Amnesty International members, senior UN officials, and US government representatives.
‘’The panel’s report has left the military, federal government, and state officials nowhere to hide.
‘’President Buhari’s team suggests that the Federal Government will ‘wait for the steps taken by the states’ — whether Lagos or other states with EndSARS investigative panels — rather than ‘impose’ a Federal Government response.’’
Continuing, the intelligence report said, ‘’complaints by military officials that leaking the report was a violation of process will not impress outraged critics.
‘’Pressure for military/security forces/police reforms is inevitable. The report moreover provides further momentum to opposition attacks on the government’s security record, and of its efforts to stifle both physical and social-media protest and criticism.
‘’The leaking of the report also resurrects EndSARS as a major domestic issue, following months during which some analysts viewed it as a movement that had fizzled out.
‘’The report has boxed Governor Sanwo-Olu into a difficult corner. If his government tries to discredit the report, which its lawyer has been doing, it is likely to be seen as an attempt to cover up.
‘’If, however, it backs the report, the state government could put itself at odds with the Federal Government which has always insisted that no killings occurred at the tollgate.
‘’The panel’s recommendations will also negatively impact Bola Ahmed Tinubu and his ambitions to succeed President Buhari.’’
In the meantime, Primate Ayodele in a statement made prophesies that there will be so many dramas that will take place in the ruling party which will involve decamping of some strong members of the Lagos APC.
‘’There will be a lot of drama before 2023. There will be a crisis in Lagos APC and I see strong members, stakeholders of the party calling it quits, I see them decamping from the party”, he said, and also warned Tinubu to re-strategize if he wants to continue well in his political career, adding that if not, the APC leader will be conquered and rendered powerless in his party.
Adding, he said, ‘’the national leader of the APC, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu needs to restrategize if he wants to continue well in his political career. I see him being disgraced in the party except he quickly restrategizes.”
The cleric warned Governor Sanwo-Olu to sit right because betrayals against his administration are already on the move, insisting, ‘’Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu needs to sit right, I see betrayals moving against him massively’’, revealing also that he foresees EFCC going after the governors of Niger, Adamawa, and Edo States.
